Deadline reports this morning that early tracking for The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 indicates it should make about $121.5M on its opening weekend in the domestic market. This would put it just under the domestic opening weekend for Part 1, which grossed $121.9M last year, and would make it the lowest opening weekend gross of the entire franchise.
Internationally it’s expected to do better; Part 1 opened to $152M in foreign markets, and unlike Part 1, this year the film will open in China that same weekend, which is sure to give it a boost. Part 2 will also benefit from IMAX sales (which Part 1 didn’t have), and a 3D release in China and other foreign markets.
It should be noted that these are just early estimates and the numbers might change as the film looms closer. It’s also worth mentioning that official industry estimates have taken a bit of a beating this year, with several films coming tens of millions under high estimates and others (like Jurassic World, for example) completely blowing their more conservative estimates out of the water. Remember that estimates for Mockingjay Part 1 were very ambitious, what with it coming off the high that was Catching Fire, and even the most conservative estimates overshot the numbers by at least $10M. It’s possible that in light of these facts, analysts are being more conservative this year.
Either way, those are the numbers the industry is working with, and now it’s up to us as fans to make sure that our movie– our last movie– reaches them and even surpasses them. What do you think? Have you already bought your tickets for opening weekend? Will you be seeing the movie in IMAX? Are you taking your whole family with you? Comment and tell us what your plans for opening weekend are.